Week of October 27, 2008

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A few states will decide the race between Barack Obama and John McCain.

The map you see here is based on polls from around the country on how people will vote in the presidential election between Barack Obama and John McCain. Based on these polls, we can predict who will win in some states. But in other states, the polls show a very close race between the two, so those states, which are shown here in yellow, are seen as undecided. Polls in some states show a small lead by one of the candidates. On this map, those states are labeled as leaning toward McCain or Obama. And sometimes polls are wrong in their predictions of who will win. What are some reasons that poll results could be wrong? From the map here, you can see that Florida has the most electoral votes of any of the undecided states. In the time left before the election, what do you think could make these so-called "swing states" swing one way or the other?

Some people don't like the Electoral College system because it takes the actual choice of candidates out of the voters' hands. People who dislike the Electoral College also say it puts a lot of importance on a few swing states. It also gives more power to states where very few people live, compared to using direct voting. Supporters of the Electoral College system think this is a good thing. Without the Electoral College, they say, candidates would campaign only in areas with large populations, such as big cities. Under the Electoral College system, candidates need to win the votes of people in many states. Which side do you think has stronger arguments?


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